Advanced NHL Props: Goalie Saves & Shots on Goal
Master the art of NHL prop betting with advanced strategies for targeting less common but highly profitable hockey markets.
Introduction to Advanced NHL Props
While most bettors focus on NHL goals and assists props, experienced hockey bettors know that some of the best value lies in less popular markets like goalie saves and shots on goal.
These props offer several advantages: sportsbooks dedicate less attention to sharpening these lines, the statistics are more predictable than scoring events, and correlation opportunities exist that many bettors overlook.
Why Focus on Saves & Shots?
Goals are highly variable (a player might average 0.3 goals/game), but shots are more consistent (a shooter might average 3.5 shots/game). This consistency makes these props more predictable for data-driven analysis.
Goalie Saves Props
Goalie saves props ask you to predict how many saves a goaltender will make in a game. This prop is directly tied to shot volume, making it one of the more predictable markets when analyzed correctly.
Key Factors for Goalie Saves
Opposing Team's Shot Volume
Teams like Colorado and Edmonton consistently generate high shot volumes, creating more save opportunities.
Game Total (Over/Under)
Higher game totals correlate with more shots and saves. Look for games with totals of 6.5+.
Pace of Play
Fast-paced matchups generate more scoring chances and shot attempts from both teams.
Goalie's Recent Workload
A goalie coming off a rest day may be sharper. Back-to-backs can affect performance.
Pro Strategy: The Shot Volume Correlation
When betting goalie saves overs, look for games where:
- The opposing team ranks top-10 in shots per game
- The game total is 6.5 or higher
- The goalie has a high save percentage (keeping him in net longer)
Shots on Goal Props
Individual shots on goal (SOG) props are often overlooked by casual bettors. This creates opportunities for those willing to dig into the data. SOG props are more consistent than goal-scoring props because shooting is a repeatable skill that doesn't depend on the puck finding the net.
Key Factors for Shots on Goal
Individual Shot Rate
Some players consistently fire more shots. Check shots per 60 minutes of ice time.
Power Play Time
Players on PP1 units get more shooting opportunities. Check recent PP deployment.
Line Combinations
Playing with elite playmakers increases shot opportunities. Monitor line changes.
Matchup & Defense Style
Some teams allow more perimeter shots. Others pack the slot and limit attempts.
Pro Strategy: Power Play Leverage
Players on the top power play unit see massive increases in shot attempts. When targeting SOG overs:
- Target players who quarterback PP1 (usually defensemen)
- Check if the opposing team takes a lot of penalties
- Rivalry games often feature more penalties and PP time
Other Valuable NHL Props
Blocked Shots
Defensemen on teams that play a shot-blocking style consistently hit blocked shot overs.
Tip: Target shutdown defensemen who play heavy minutes against top offensive teams.
Hits
Physical players on fourth lines often have consistent hit totals. Look for rivalry games.
Tip: Some arenas count hits more liberally — factor in home/away splits.
Time on Ice
Available at some books, TOI props can be very predictable for star players and top-pair defensemen.
Tip: Games expected to be close feature more ice time for top players.
Faceoff Wins
Elite faceoff specialists have consistent win rates. Target top centers against weaker faceoff teams.
Tip: Higher-scoring games mean more faceoffs, benefiting this prop.
Key Research Factors
Check Recent Form
Look at the last 5-10 games rather than season averages. NHL players go through hot and cold streaks that dramatically affect prop performance.
Monitor Line Combinations
NHL coaches frequently shuffle lines. A player moved to the top line or PP1 will see significantly more opportunities. Check morning skate reports.
Consider Schedule Spots
Back-to-backs, long road trips, and time zone changes affect NHL performance. Tired teams often see reduced shot volumes and lower-energy play.
Compare Lines Across Books
NHL props can vary significantly between sportsbooks. A shots prop might be 3.5 at one book and 4.5 at another. Always shop for the best number.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Ignoring Goalie Matchups
A hot goalie facing a cold offensive team completely changes the shot volume equation. Always check who's in net on both sides.
Using Only Season Averages
NHL rosters and line combinations change throughout the season. A player's stats from October may be irrelevant by February.
Overlooking Arena Statistics
Some arenas are notoriously liberal or conservative with hit and blocked shot counts. Factor in home vs. away when analyzing these props.
Chasing Stars Only
Sportsbooks price star players carefully. Often, better value exists in props for consistent role players who fly under the radar.
Tools for NHL Prop Analysis
Props Optimizer provides comprehensive NHL prop analysis to help you find edges in hockey markets:
Line Comparison
Compare NHL props across sportsbooks to find the best numbers for saves, shots, and more.
Hit Rate Data
See how often players have gone over/under specific lines based on recent performance.
Start Finding NHL Prop Edges Today
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